ICAO 9877 PDF

INTRODUCTION

This report includes medium-term forecasts of air traffic in the Transpacific area, in the Asia/Pacific region, and for selected Transpacific and Asia/Pacific city-pair markets through to 2010. The report also contains a long-term forecast with a horizon to the year 2020, including intermediate forecasts for each of the years 2010-2015 and 2015-2020. Forecasts are provided for total passenger traffic and aircraft movements, and in the case of the aggregate Transpacific market, also for peak hour movements on selected route groups for the year 2010. The peak hour analysis is based on a detailed review of traffic during a typical July week of 2004, 2005 and 2006, summarized in Appendix B. The Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts include passenger and aircraft movements forecasts to the year 2020.

These forecasts were produced by the APA TFG at its thirteenth meeting, held in Bangkok from 6 to 13 October 2006. Membership in APA TFG consists of representatives from Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan, Singapore and the United States. In addition, China has been invited to be a member of the TFG, though its participation has not been confirmed. Thailand and Hong Kong SAR provided Bangkok FIR and Hong Kong FIR data, respectively. The Group's activities are serviced and coordinated by the ICAO Secretariat at Headquarters, in close consultation with the ICAO Asia and Pacific Regional Office. Participants at the thirteenth meeting are listed in Appendix A.

The economic downturn experienced in 1997/1998 in the Asia/Pacific region had major impacts on traffic levels, but the region regained economic strength. This was evidenced by a 4.0 per cent growth in total Asia/Pacific region GDP in 2000. The GDP of China grew at 8.0 per cent while Asia's four newly industrialized economies grew by almost 10 per cent. Consequently, traffic in the Transpacific and the Intra-Asia/Pacific regions in 2000 increased by 8.1 and 5.8 per cent, respectively. Tourism in the region also benefited from the recovery and experienced high growth rates. It was against this background that the tenth meeting of the APA TFG revised the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts in June 2001. In addition, forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015, for the Intra-Asia/Pacific route group, were introduced for the first time. The Group also considered ways and means of addressing the requirements identified by the ICAO Asia/Pacific Air Navigation Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APANPIRG) and its relevant sub-groups.

The events of 11 September 2001 in the United States precipitated a sudden drop in traffic and thereby invalidated the forecasts which had been developed by the Group in June 2001, particularly as weaknesses in the global economy began to emerge and as consumer confidence eroded.

In light of the above developments, the eleventh meeting of APA TFG concentrated primarily on the revision of the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts together with forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015 for the Intra-Asia/Pacific region.

The SARS outbreak had devastating effects on air traffic to, from and within the affected areas in the first half of 2003. Reported monthly figures suggest that the drop in passenger traffic reached its lowest in May after which it started a steady recovery. It is estimated that in 2003, passenger traffic on Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific routes dropped by some 10 per cent. It was against this background that the twelfth meeting of the APA TFG focussed on the revision of the medium- and long-term forecasts for Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific; the horizon of the long-term forecasts being extended to the year 2020.

The thirteenth meeting of the Group focussed on the update of the forecasts developed during the previous meeting of the Group, taking into account the developments which have taken place on both Transpacific and Intra-Asia air transport markets since mid-2004.

Apart from ICAO member States, the primary users of these area forecasts are expected to be air navigation service providers in the regions concerned and planning groups, especially APANPIRG. This information is also likely to be of interest to airlines and airports of the region to assist in their planning processes. The format and content of these reports and the forecasts of the APA TFG will be modified progressively to respond to the requirements of primary users such as APANPIRG and assist with progressive implementation of CNS/ATM systems in the region.