ICAO 9940 PDF

INTRODUCTION

The main purpose of the Caribbean/South American (CAR/SAM) Region Traffic Forecasting Group (TFG) which was established in 1996, is to prepare forecasts for air passenger traffic and aircraft movements as well as peak period analysis, used to support the planning of air navigation services in the Region. Traffic forecasts and the analysis of peak-period planning parameters are important in anticipating where and when airspace and airport congestions may occur. It is then possible to plan for the required expansion of capacity. These forecasts also have an important role in planning the implementation of CNS/ATM systems. The primary users of the forecasts developed by the CAR/SAM TFG are expected to be Member States of ICAO, air navigation service providers in the region, and the ICAO planning and implementation regional group for CAR/SAM (GREPECAS).

The CAR/SAM TFG to date has held 8 meetings. During the last meeting, held in Kingston, Jamaica from 29 March to 2 April 2010, the Group developed a new set of forecasts for the six major route groups to, from and within the Region, taking into account the recent developments. The forecasts cover passenger and aircraft movements traffic. Passenger traffic forecasts are based on assumptions made for economic growth and passenger yields. Aircraft movements traffic forecasts are based on assumptions for future trends in average load factors and average aircraft seating capacity. Projections of aircraft movements traffic for the top 25 city pairs in each of the major route groups were also developed. In addition, the analysis of FIR aircraft movements traffic data including peak-period planning parameters for the airspace controlled by Jamaica (Kingston FIR) and by COCESNA (CENAMER FIR) was carried out. In preparing the forecasts, the base year was 2009, and the forecasts were done for the periods 2010 to 2014 and target years 2019 and 2030.