3409 -- Stochastic Models of Solar Radiation and Outdoor Temperature PDF

In previous papers (Hokoi et al. 1986, 1988), proposed a method of calculation that gives the maximum load and the distribution of the load of an intermittently heated building, taking account of the stochastic nature of the external climate. An an alternative to the use of hourly historical weather data, a statistical method is proposed to generate synthetic weather data. We develop adequate stochastic models for solar radiation (ARMA model) and outdoor temperature (ARMAX model) time series, taking their correlations into consideration. Furthermore, by comparing the resultant room temperatures when TAC and the output of the ARMA models are used as inputs to the thermal system, we can show the possible importance of auto- and cross-correlations for building thermal analysis.

KEYWORDS: calculating, solar radiation, outdoor temperature, comparing, heat load, room temperature, buildings, cooling load, heat flow, weather, data, history.