C006 -- Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator Application to Heat Waves PDF

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency, making historical weather patterns insufficientfor assessments of building resilience. This work introduces a stochastic weather generator called the multiscenarioextreme weather simulator (MEWS) that produces credible future heat waves. MEWS calculates statistical parameters from historical weather data and then shifts them using climate projections of increasing severity and frequency. MEWS is demonstrated using the EnergyPlus medium office prototype model for climate zone 4B using five climate scenarios to 2060. The results show how changes in climate and heat waves affectelectric loads, peak loads, and thermal comfort with uncertainty.