KC-03-02-3 -- Comparison of Methods for Predicting Monthly Post-Retrofit Energy Use in Buildings PDF

This paper compares methods to verify post-retrofit energy savings using available data on existing buildings. Common methods, including the 65°F-base degree-day method, the bin method, linear change-point regression, and neural networks, were assessed. A new method for predicting building energy use, based on genetic programming, was developed. All methods were experimentally evaluated using data collected from two existing buildings. These two buildings did not have any retrofits installed, so the known energy savings was zero. The evaluation procedures are described and the results compared.

Units: I-P