SE-14-C014 -- Development of a Probabilistic Graphical Energy Performance Model for an Office Building PDF

This paper presents the development of a data driven probabilistic graphic model to predict building energy performance. A directed graphical model, namely, a Bayesian Networks (BNs) model is created. Each node in the BNs represents a random variable such as outside air temperature, energy end use, etc. The links between the nodes are probabilistic dependencies among these corresponding variables. These dependencies are statistically learnt and/or estimated by using measured data and augmented by domain expert knowledge. BNs models became popular models in the last decade and only recently received attention for HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning) applications. A case study of using a BNs model to predict HVAC hot water energy consumption in an office building is presented. This paper will conclude with lessons learnt and future work.