TO-98-12-2 -- A Baseline Model for Utility Bill Analysis Using Both Weather and Non-Weather-Related Variables PDF

Many utility bill analyses in the literature rely only on weather-based correlations. While often the dominant cause of seasonal variations in utility consumption, weather variables are far from the only determinant factors. Vacation shutdowns, "plug creep," changes in building operation and square footage, and plain poor correlation are all too familiar to the practicing performance contractor.

This paper presents a generalized baseline equation, consistent with prior results by others but extended to include other, non-weather-related independent variables. Its compatibility with extensive prior research by others is shown, as well as its application to several types of facilities. The baseline equation, as presented, can accommodate up to five simultaneous independent variables for a maximum of eight free parameters. The use of two additional, empirical degree-day threshold parameters is also discussed.

The baseline equation presented here is at the base of a commercial utility accounting software program. All case studies presented to illustrate the development of the baseline equation for each facility are drawn from real-life studies performed by users of this program.

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