Modeling to Inform Infectious Disease Control PDF

Preface

Modeling is increasingly used to inform infectious disease control. Unfortunately, the technical nature of modeling prevents public health ocers from taking full advantage of models when developing strategies to mitigate infectious disease transmission. The aim of this book is

(i) to make modeling insights about the control of infectious diseases accessible to a wide audience, and

(ii) to promote an interest in modeling that is simple and clearly targeted at providing useful insights about infectious disease management.

To this end the core material of every chapter is presented in a way that requires only a modest knowledge of mathematics. For this core material, it is assumed that the reader is able to interpret an algebraic formula and understands what it means to solve an equation. Such readers will be able to use the core material to assess intervention options for the control of infectious diseases. Technical support material is deferred to a separate section at the end of each chapter, under the heading \Supplementary material," for readers with a stronger background in mathematics and an interest in learning the art of modeling towards a clear purpose.

The core material is suitable for a Master of Public Health course. A one semester course in biostatistics is a useful prerequisite for this material. Students are assisted by instructive exercises, a glossary of infectious disease terminology and a glossary of notation.

The technical material at the back of each chapter is generally partitioned into subsections. This gives instructors scope to tailor a course to the mathematical background of their students.

The author is grateful to Prof. Klaus Dietz for making the data on the outbreak of measles in Hagelloch available. I am also grateful for discussions and collaborations I have enjoyed with many colleagues. You have taught me so much.